Monthly Archives: October 2011

Year to Date Residential Sales on the Alabama Coast Surprisingly Strong

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of September 2011

Dollar sales this month decreased 15% to $75,465,744 from August’s $88,583,253. This is 25% above September last year at $60,594,052 when sales were impacted by the oil spill and the tax credit expiration (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales is quite clearly on an upwards tilt. Year to date sales are up 20% to $698,334,308 vs $584,097,053 last year. Unit sales are up 18% to 3,414 vs. 2,903 last year. On a 9 month basis only 2004 and 2005 exceeded this unit volume. While inventories are high, unit sales have recovered to normal levels. Dollar sales still lag reflecting fewer high end sales and lower prices. Given the inventory level it is unlikely that prices will see much recovery for a while.

For the last year, the twelve month moving average line of dollar sales is trending up. On a unit basis, sales of all houses declined 13% to 364 this month vs. 418 last month, which is 31% up from last year’s 277.

Used Home sales declined 15% to 331 this month vs. 390 last month, which is up 35% from last year’s 245 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 33 this month vs 28 last month. Low sales of New homes reflects intense competition from existing, and the shutdown of new construction.

New listings for new homes increased to 42 from 66 in August. Used houses New listings decreased to 526 from 683 in August with net inventory still down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ’09, has once again been improving. In September, there were 3,884 Active Used homes, a reduction from 4,391 in August. The New home market, which peaked in September 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 334.

The Absorption rate for new homes was 13 months of inventory for September vs. 14 in August. The Absorption rate for used homes was 12 months of inventory for September vs. 14 in August. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in September 2008 to 12 months in September.

Average sales price for all homes has been stable for the past year. For New units, prices decreased to $179,069 from $298,172 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices increased to $210,140 from $205,729 in August.

Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in September was 188 this month vs. 303 last month. Days On Market for Used was 167 this month vs. 178 last month.

TWB 10/09/2011

Posted in Absorption, Alabama, Alabama Coast, Baldwin, Construction, Inventory, MLS, Oil Spill | Tagged Alabama, Alabama Coast, Baldwin County, Days on market, Inventory, Monthly comments, Price, Residential Real Estate | Leave a reply

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Birmingham Residential Year To Date Sales Off 3% From Last Year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for September 2011

Sales in September declined 12% to $176,754,946 from August’s $200,691,237, up 9% from last September’s $162,426,387. This month to month fluctuation is in line with the normal seasonal contraction without the distortion caused by the expiration of last year’s tax credit. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales remains tilted slightly upward. Year to date total $ sales were down 3% to $1,534,598,983 vs $1,580,081,340, and unit sales were off 4% to 9,450 vs 9,869 last year. This is a modest reduction considering the absence of major government actions such as the tax credit.

Total unit sales were down 9% to 1,101 in September from 1,214 in August, a decrease of 113. This is a 13% improvement from September 2010 at 973. New sales improved 6% to 139 homes this month from 131 in August, an increase of 8 units. Used sales declined 11% to 962 homes in September from 1,083 last month, a decrease of 121 (Sect E p.3).

This month Total Inventory is lower at 11,235 vs. 13,612 last year. Active New listings decreased to 925 in September from 1,216 in August, a decline of 291 units (Sect E p.3).For the second month, housing permits showed a big increase in Jefferson County to 140 in August from 117 in July. Shelby County was down to 16 from 19 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes last month remain high. New homes at 8 months supply this month and a reduced sales pace, is one month worse than last year at this time (Sect E p.3). The situation remains distressed. New home supply seems to be accumulating. Under $100,000 New homes are at 11 months supply. (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.) New home inventories in higher price ranges (above $400,000), remain excessive at over a year.

Absorption for Used homes in September 2011 shows 10,310 Used Active listings as a lower number than 12,365 last year (Sect E p.3), which is 12 months of supply, a bit better than 14 months last year (Sect E p.3). The listing activity is somewhat less than last year as is sales activity….

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses was 206 compared to last month at 199 . The Used homes DOM was 149 in September, compared with 149 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used Homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. The high months of inventory indicates that sellers, including bank owners, are still holding out for higher prices. Newsflash: If the home is not selling, reduce the price, particularly since we are entering the slower sales season of the year.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $220,825 from $235,413 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes decreased to $151,830 from $156,835 last month (Sect A p2). The twelve month moving average price line for Used Homes has been quite steady since mid 2009 and is now showing an uptrend. Average home prices new and used, have stabilized and show an upward trend (Sect A p2). This is mostly a reflection in the change of “mix” with more larger homes being sold, but the price of any specific home remains under pressure.

TWB 10/08/11

Posted in Absorption, Alabama, Birmingham, Building Permit, Construction, Home values, Inventory, Jefferson County, MLS, Monthly comments, real estate | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a reply

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Hoover, Alabama Housing Market Trends-October 2010

Recent sales data for the month of October provided by the Birmingham Multiple Listing Service indicates some positive trends in residential home sale prices. Some of the good news includes an increase in the median sales price over this time last year (2009). In October of this year the median sales price was $256,150 compared to $239,035 for last year, for an increase of 7.2%. The chart below shows more statistics for October of 2010.

Hoover Sales Statistics 1024x365 Hoover, Alabama Housing Market Trends October 2010Click to Enlarge

 

This of course includes all homes in the Hoover area. Some areas may be higher and others lower. Real estate is location specific so this is no indication that all homes will show this type of increase, but as a whole it is positive. Other indicators include new listings, which has decreased from last year. This could reflect owners willingness to stay in their existing homes until the market recovers. The overall number of new listings in the past 12 months has exceeded last year by 6.4%. An extension of this statistic would be closed sales, which has also decreased over 2009. The list price to sales price ratio is slightly higher at 93.6% this year, compared to 93% last year. Any increase in this statistic is good because it measures how much the buyer had to come off of their full list price. The average days on market that it takes to sell a home has decreased from 133 days to 72 days, which is a good indicator as well since everyone wants to sell their home as quickly as possible. This is only a brief synopsis of recent sales activity in the Hoover, Alabama area. Are you seeing this type of activity in your market? If not, what is the market like?

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